There was a time not too long ago when Yellowknife homes virtually sold themselves.\u00a0 Multi-offer situations were commonplace, homes sold within days of listing, and it wasn\u2019t unheard of for desperate buyers to walk up to people\u2019s doors uninvited and try to persuade them to sell.\u00a0 Making a considerable profit on the sale of a home \u2013 even in just a few years – was the rule, not the exception.<\/p>\n
These are not those days.<\/p>\n
That general statement won\u2019t surprise anyone who has been paying attention to our real estate market, but nor will it really help sellers make an informed choice between selling or staying put this year.\u00a0 To help out, we\u2019ve conducted an in-depth analysis of the 2018 Yellowknife market where we break down the sales results in a number of different ways including by housing type, price range and season, and we\u2019ve also made predictions for the 2019 market based on local and national factors.\u00a0 In this article I\u2019ll be sharing some highlights from that analysis, but you can sign up to receive a free copy of the full market report by following this link<\/a>.<\/p>\n In a nutshell, although our market has slowed, it\u2019s still pretty darned good compared to much of Canada.\u00a0 The best way to illustrate this is to refer to what market analysts call the \u201csales-to-new-listings\u201d ratio.\u00a0 A ratio of 40 or fewer sales for every 100 new listings (0%-40%) is considered a buyers\u2019 market,\u00a0 40%-60% is considered a balanced market, and 60% or more is a sellers\u2019 market.\u00a0 As a point of reference, the national average in 2018 was 53.5%.\u00a0 In Yellowknife our market fell from a ratio of 66% in 2017 down to 60% in 2018.\u00a0 That\u2019s not an insignificant decline, but it still leaves us far above buyers\u2019-market territory.\u00a0 Basically, we are straddling the line between a sellers\u2019 market and a balanced market.<\/p>\n Another important metric to consider is how long it takes to sell the average listing, also known as \u201caverage days on market.\u201d In 2018 average days on market increased by two weeks from 80 to 94 days.\u00a0 As a result there was a pretty significant accumulation of listings by mid-summer.\u00a0 Sellers faced more competition for buyers than the year prior, and, although we don\u2019t have reliable \u201cdays on market\u201d statistics dating back further than 2017, it seemed like they faced more competition than at any time since the late 1990s.<\/p>\n Neither of these market indicators should really surprise anyone.\u00a0 Just over a year ago the Bank of Canada set out to slow down real estate markets<\/a> across the country by raising interest rates and making it harder for buyers to qualify for a mortgage.\u00a0 MLS sales across the country declined by 11% in 2018 – a statistic that Yellowknife mirrored perfectly.\u00a0 Clearly the Bank of Canada accomplished its mission.<\/p>\n The good news is that the Bank of Canada of has recently sent signals<\/a> that it will not be continuing with interest rate hikes in 2019.\u00a0 That\u2019s not set in stone of course, but it is a big departure from the message they were sending a few short months ago.\u00a0 On top of this, on January 22nd<\/sup>, the Federal Government hinted<\/a> that relief for first time home buyers might be coming down the pre-election pike.\u00a0 I can\u2019t guess what that might look like, but any loosening of last year\u2019s mortgage qualification rules, especially for young people, will have a big impact on our market.<\/p>\n So the national picture seems to be shaping up nicely for 2019, but what about the situation here on the ground in Yellowknife?\u00a0 There is no denying that there are some clouds on the horizon for the mining industry, but Yellowknife is still a very attractive place for people looking to accelerate their careers.\u00a0 We continue to draw a steady inflow of new homebuyers, and this is not likely to change any time soon.\u00a0 With each passing year it seems like the public sector becomes more important to our overall economic wellbeing, and it gives our real estate market a stability that other cities only wish they had.<\/p>\n My expectation is that in 2019, the Yellowknife market will do slightly better than it did last year, making up the 11% of MLS sales that it lost.\u00a0 The rising tide may not impact all price ranges and housing types, but overall we see numbers similar to 2017.\u00a0 And if the Federal Government follows through with a new package of incentives for first-time home buyers, we will do better still.<\/p>\n